Who do you think will produce the next big break-through innovation?  Do you think the next big thing will come from big business? Government? If I were to bet, I’d put my money on a small group outside the norm - someone we haven’t heard from -yet.

Small groups will almost always out-innovate big ones. One reason is passion but the other is the inherent lack of agility in big groups.  

Regardless of what anyone says, business believes in the mythical man-year.  If 10 people can produce innovation, then 100 people should be able to do it more, better. faster and cheaper. But it doesn't work that way.

Innovation, truly breakthrough innovation, comes from ecotones - those "edge of the ecology" areas that rely on adaptive behavior, survive and thrive on minimal resources and/or are able to easily transition from one ecology to another.  Their existence is a testament to adaptability and innovation.  One need only look at some historic examples to find the truth in this observation. Hewlett-Packard’s famous garage; the original skunk works, Wozniak & Jobs tinkering on the Apple, even Edison’s early attempts at the light bulb. These were not regimented, structured, big group efforts - they were usually a few people tinkering at the edge - or beyond the edge of commonly held knowledge and technology.

Sure, big groups with lots of resources may be able to produce some new stuff - but not very efficiently - simply because of the law of big numbers - once you get beyond 25 members, effectiveness drops and you need coordination and management. Actually unless a group is trusting and self managing, optimal size is closer to 7 to 15 members.

For some reason - at least in the US - we seem to trust big business more than government. Perhaps that’s a function of who controls the media and message - and perhaps the growth in the size of government has contributed. But let’s dispel a prevalent myth: Can government sponsor innovation? Yes!

Can they do it more efficiently than business? I think the evidence is clear.  Ignore for the moment the ridiculous propaganda about government inefficiencies. As just one example of public efficiency, consider Medicare. It's administrative overhead is roughly 3%.  Even the most efficient health insurance systems are at 15%-40% in part because they have to make a profit.

Government innovation also leads eventually to benefit for citizens and for business. Consider such everyday products as Velcro, transistors, the Internet (Darpanet), satellite communications, genome therapy, etc. - all originally developed by government funded research.

We have lost sight of the value of basic research. Without basic research, we are left to tinker at the edges of what we know - not create something new. Even the “accepted” definition of innovation has been corrupted by the push for profits. Innovation is commonly defined as a successfully commercialized product, service or idea - i.e. it isn’t successful if it doesn’t make money. With the lack of support for basic research and the emphasis on commercialization as the measure of innovation, It’s possible that many of the great innovations of the past would not survive the present climate. How many great ideas and creative solutions flounder and die in our present circumstances? Sad isn’t it? 

That’s the way I see it from where I sit. Of course I could be wrong.